Trump’s Chances of Winning Pennsylvania Fade
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Top line
A high-quality poll on Tuesday found Joe Biden to be well ahead in the battlefield state of Pennsylvania, a state crucial for President Trump to win if he wants to seek re-election, while other state polls released Tuesday show the Democratic candidate with a comfortable and stable lead weeks away from election day, with one exception.
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 05: US President Donald Trump stands on the Truman Balcony after … [+]
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Highlights
Biden holds a 12-point lead (54% -42%) among registered voters in Pennsylvania, a Monmouth university survey published Tuesday found.
The former vice president has seen his lead widen in Keystone state in recent weeks after his tour through the state by train following last week’s debate.
A separate CNBC / Change Research survey showed Biden ahead of 4 points in Pennsylvania (50% -46%) but the former vice president now leads by 6.5 points on average in the state, according to the polls average of RealClearPolitics tracker.
The CNBC / Change Research poll also found Biden ahead in Florida by 4 points (50% -46%), Arizona by 6 points (51% -45%), Michigan by 8 points (51% -43%). , North Carolina by 2 points (49% -47%) and Wisconsin by 7 points (51% -44%).
An encouraging sign for the president is a Suffolk University /United States today investigation released on Tuesday which found Trump and Biden tied in Florida state (45% -45%).
However, the poll may be an outlier, as Biden led by 3.5 points on average in the state.
Key context
All of these polls were taken after the first presidential debate, which saw the president interrupt, speak and taunt Biden in a boisterous 90-minute affair. Some of those polls, like the one in Monmouth, were carried out primarily before the president tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday.
Crucial quote
Nate Cohn, a survey expert for the New York Times, said the Monmouth poll result is a “terrible result” for the President because the latest Monmouth poll was one of his best in months. In September, a Monmouth poll of voters in Pennsylvania showed the race had narrowed to Biden in the lead by 4 points (49% -45%).
Large number
13 points. That’s the margin by which Biden leads senior voters in Pennsylvania (55% -42%), according to the Monmouth poll, reflecting a national theme. Trump won senior voters 10 points in Keystone state in 2016, according to exit polls.
Surprising fact
At this point in the race in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 7.5 points on average in Pennsylvania, according to the RealClearPolitics tracker, although there was much more fluctuation in poll results than in 2020. Clinton ended up losing Pennsylvania by less than a percentage. point.
Tangent
A national investigation produced by CNN / SRSS published On Tuesday, Biden took a 16-point lead nationally (57% -41%).
Further reading
Biden jumps to 16 points to national leader after Trump’s Covid diagnosis, new poll finds (Forbes)
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