Global stocks hit new high, oil surges in big data week
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Global stocks hit an all-time high again and oil rose on Tuesday, with markets ignoring concerns about rising inflation and anticipating U.S. data later in the week that should provide a major clue to the health of the world. ‘Mondial economy.
Risk markets have made gains in recent weeks as traders balance optimism that some key markets will reopen after pandemic-induced closures, fearing that rising inflation may prompt central banks to reopen. curb stimulus programs.
The recovery from COVID-19 also remains uneven in many parts of the world, with exports picking up but broader economic activity still hampered by measures to contain new epidemics.
Against this backdrop, Eurozone inflation in May was higher than expected at 2%, driven by rising energy costs, above the lower European Central Bank target but close to 2% – and with even higher levels expected later in the year.
Later in the week, Friday’s US employment data should also give a stronger direction to the Fed’s near-term policy action.
Previously, MSCI’s broadest scale of global stock markets (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3% to an all-time high, thanks to large gains on major European indices, the STOXX Europe 600 (.STOXX) extending its earnings to 1.1%.
“Although global equities are now around 20% above pre-pandemic highs, the combination of strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations versus still low bond yields portends a further rise. stocks, â€said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth. Management.
Overnight, the largest MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.6%, hitting the highest in one month and surpassing 7% in total gains so far this year.
South Korean stocks (.KS11) rose 0.6% after a jump in exports in May, and Chinese stocks (.CSI300) climbed 0.2% after data shows factory activity grew at the fastest rate this year in May. Read more
The main event this week is US wage data on Friday, with markets looking for a signal from the Federal Reserve on when it will start cutting its bond buying program.
The median forecast is that 650,000 jobs were created in May, but the outcome is uncertain after the surprisingly small gain of 266,000 in April.
Although inflation data in the United States last week was better than estimated, another big job failure would delay prospects for a gradual reduction in stimulus measures, analysts said. Read more
Societe Generale strategist Sebastien Galy said he expected jobs data to be lower or in line with consensus, but given low levels of equity volatility, markets were ready to move. jump on higher-than-expected numbers.
“We remain constructive on risk as we expect disappointment on NFPs (nonfarm jobs), but the equity volatility market is likely to revalue higher from its lowest extremes,” he said. he stated in a note to customers.
As traders waited for clues as to the direction of the Fed, the dollar hovered around a basket of its major peers and the yield on 10-year US government debt rose 2 basis points.
The 10-year German Bund yield, meanwhile, remained stable at around -0.18%, as bond markets picked up on news of soaring inflation in the eurozone.
Concerns about global inflation pushed gold up 8% this month to sit comfortably above $ 1,900, although the yellow metal gave up early gains in the last trade at dish of the day.
Oil prices, meanwhile, extended their gains ahead of an OPEC + meeting and on optimism that demand for fuel will increase in the coming months as the summer driving season in the United States kicks off.
Brent crude futures for August rose 2.2% to $ 70.84 a barrel, while US crude rose 2.9% to $ 68.21.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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